Wednesday, July 13, 2011

MARKET UPDATE WED JUNE 13

The markets are range bound and even the pairs that look like they have moved have not really moved is such a way as to give you a reasonable entry signal.  The moves we have seen so far have been setup signals ( moves to set a market up to where is CAN produce a signal.  The moves that I see that did occur tells me that if you as a retail trader got in on the right side of the move, it was more luck than a supply demand imbalance signal.  That's not to put it down because we all play hunches sometimes.  I'm just saying we can't make a living off of hunches.

The reason the markets are range bound is because of the U.S. Federal reserve talking head at 10:30 am est.  professionals always wait to see what the heads will say because, the only reason for publishing this type of data .  Unless, like the movie, " Trading Places," with Eddie Murphy, someone has slipped out the news in advance.

( Fed Chairman Bernanke Due to testify on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC;).  Oh really now.  And you just happen to want me, little ole retail trader whom you don't want to know shit about anything, but you want me to know monetary policy, and kind enough to publish it so all of us cattle can see...

Listen, any overnight moves up until that report is to suck in enough retail traders to make the decision on which way to take the market after the report.  More retailers long the market goes down.  More retailers short the market goes up.  How is in justified after the fact.  Well, "the comments were more hawkish than expected," or "the comments were more dovish than expected."  Here's the question...WHO DECIDES IF THE COMMENTS ARE EITHER OF THE TWO...?

Well it ain't us Mr./Mrs retail trader.  The whole purpose of publishing those meetings is...More retail traders long, Fed talks market down.  More retail traders short, Fed talks market up.  Sometimes the games get's really special and they do both, talk it up then, talk it down, then repeat that process, just to be sure they got your rent money, lol... Whatever method we trade WE MUST CONSIDER THE NEWS.  Traders hate to incorporate that into their analysis because, shoot, that just more work.  Man, I got into forex for some easy money and here you are telling me I have to think some more.  Besides, I only have a certain time I can trade and I have to get in  there...Listen, I feel you.  I've been there and want it like that myself but, year after year I've found that the markets don't give a damn about any of that.  Go figure...

Remember those old horror films where the guy who's the werewolf will have the girl he loves, lock him in a room so he can't get out and hurt anyone until the full moon us over with?  Well, you love yourself don't you?

There is a full moon at 10:30 am est.  Do you get my drift Mr. and Mrs. werewolf...

Now, I don't have to be right about it.  I only have to be AWARE of it.

Cheers, Jerry

No comments: