LOOK AT THIS 30 MIN CHART 15 MINUTES AFTER THE DATA RELEASE. THIS IS THE REASON I USUALLY SIT THEM OUT. THIS IS TOO MUCH LIKE A CASINO FOR ME. WHY GO THROUGH THIS WHEN THERE ARE SO MANY ORDERLY , PREDICTABLE MOVES FOR US TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF. THIS IS GUT WRENCHING NO MATTER WHERE IT GOES FROM HERE...
JERRY
Well I guess I will sit this one out. I use the euro/usd and the gbp/usd as a barometer. The market seems to have it's poker face on.
There are a couple of subtle hints though that makes me lean towards a dollar bearish release.
the 4hr has formed an internal bear pivot on the gbp. Since this bear pivot is inside the range bar from yesterday's rise this pivot is questionable as the top of that range bar is the true swing bar.
Secondly, the last 4hr bar closed down on higher volume but did not close below the low of the prior bar. This is a volume divergence on the 4hr. This is an indication that selling volume has dried up before the release and supports yesterdays bullish volume divergence on the daily chart where we had an up close on lower volume to indicate selling volume had dried up on the daily.
The same profile is in effect with the Euro. So, I could be wrong but I smell a bear trap setup before the news release. But with so much data coming out today and the convergence of signals not being conclusive, I will sit this one out because I only trade based on high probability.
Jerry
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The market is waiting for the payroll data from the u.s. at 8:30 am est. but that's not all. there are a total of 11. yes 11 data reports coming out of the U.S. today.
That's a lot of opportunity to shake traders out of their cash. I don't see the market doing anything until then. We will see what the setup looks like 30 min before the release.
However, the daily charts on both the euro/usd and the gbp/usd shows that selling has ended and the momentum has switched from down to up on both of these pairs. But everything that has gone on for this week has just been positioning for this payroll report. As far as reports go, this is one that sets the tone for direction for the next couple of weeks so it is one of the monster reports.
The euro/usd formed a bull pivot at the close of yesterday's trading but did so on lower volume which makes it more suspect than usual because of the data coming out.
What should concern the trader is the amount of other data to go with it which will allow for stop hunts with news as the excuse throughout the day. The best advise I can give you now is to keep your bullets in the chamber until the report or just before the report when you can see how the market has positioned itself for the data.
But the inside operators always know in advance so based on the subtle change in the volume profiles my bias at the moment is against the dollar and I anticipate dollar negative news.
But all in all the picture is giving conflicting signals so I consider it a weak bias at this time because the weakness of the down volume could just be a byproduct of many traders waiting this week out for this big news data.
I won't know until 30 to 15 minutes before the data if I will take a position or sit this one out.
Jerry
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