EURO/DOLLOR UPDATE 5-4-2007

If you followed my advice an went to forexfactory.com you see that beginning at 8:30 AM est there is a lot of U.S. data coming out today. More than usual I'd say.

So, I expect some sexy gyrations in the market today. Would not surprise me if the last 3 down days have been setups to get shortsellers foaming at the mouth only to complete that play I was talking about a couple of days ago. You know...THE OLE DOUBLE REVERSE.

Let's see now, yesterday the U.S. economy healed overnight to seal the deal on the, dare I say trap.

But if I'm wrong and the U.S. data has another upside surprise, look out below as there is some nice ground to cover since the break out from the 3432 range which has not been tested. And you already know that Friday is big move day.

Oh yeah, about that trade I posted. Sure enough another bull signal came across on the 15 minute that took us back up to the blue line. Nope I didn't catch that move. I pulled my little earlier hit and run move and went to bed.

But if I was in the market right now, and I wouldn't be, I'd be trying to ease out the back door right about say...NOW

But if capturing big moves with high risk is your thing, today's your day. Is this a prediction? Nope it just a probability. The cycle of the past repeating the future.

And this happened just to make things more confusing for me no doubt. The 4hr just closed with a bull pivot but, had lower volume. However it is an inside bar. A bullish Harami (pregnant mother) if you read the candlestick dictionary I sent you. But you really can't count on them until they break out one side or the other.

I'm so confused. I'll buy tickest to watch this one from the stands.

But if I was going to gamble I'd gamble with the trend. Up...



I AM JERRY...THAT IS ALL

TRADE 5-4-2007

Well, I did what I told you I'd do. My bull signal came on the intraday 30 min chart. I have attached it to this post. I entered at the close of the pivot bar 3548 with my stop 3 pips below the swing bar at 3532. So I was risking 16 pips on this trade.

I did not wait for a pullback to the pivot point on this one because the range between the high of the pivot bar and the actual pivot point was only 5 pips. So why take a chance on missing the move for only 5 pips. Waiting for a pullback would have lowered my stop down to 11 pips. Just an example of what I mean by not trying to get too perfect. You know, penny wise and a pound foolish as they say.

I took my profit at the blue line I drew on the chart because It is the top of a range bar. I keep telling you that a range bar is support/resistance in it's own right.

So, I took profit at 3573. The yellow line is at 3577. so I took profit 4 pips earlier than I planned. The same logic I applied about my entry in the first paragraph above applies to this exit also.

My entry signal came on the 30 minute chart so I took my profit at 30 minute resistance. I'm not saying that the market won't get to the yellow line later because I believe it will. However It doesn't matter what I think. It only matters what the market does.

So I take the 25 pip profit and wait for another entry signal. It may come again on the 30 min after a pullback or it may come on the 1hr or 4hr or not at all.

And by the way, the red line I drew on the chart. If we get a close above the yellow line on the 30 min which is valid according to our LCM principles the next target is the red line because that's where this down move began with a double bear pivot on the 30min. Remember markets move from pivot to pivot. On the way to each pivot are 3 bar balance points. Each balance point is like a stair step on the climb climb up or the step down.

The failure to reach a balance point along the way is like , when you're walking up a flight of stairs and you get so tired you can't raise your leg high enough to reach that next stair. so then you either sit down and rest (consoladate your strength) or you find it much easier to quit and head back down.
Cheers

Jerry