EURUSD JULY 7 2011

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EURUSD

I am looking for a fall to 4175 but first a pullback up to minor support at 4409.  We broke down through minor support yesterday and that is an Lcm breakin signal that I teach in my 1 on 1 course.

After a signal there is usually a pullback. I am looking to enter as follows.  1/3 of my normal full position on a break below yesterday's low.  2/3 of my normal position on a pullback to 4409. 

Yesterdays move was controlled by the market makers and before they let price fall further the probability is high that they will rise ii on a pullback to get better positions for the further fall down to major support at 4182.
 


If you are considering a short trade today your stop needs to be above 4470

It works like this: 1. Market breaks down through minor support  2.  Market pulls back to test minor support  3. Market continues down to major support.

If the move does not follow this sequence, ( does not pullback ) Major support at 4182 can be expected to bounce price back up.  If this scenario should play our, look to enter long off of the supply line at 4137.

You already have the lines from yesterday's video, just add a line at 4182.

Always remember, a close beyond a support or resistance level is a signal when confirmed by volume.  That is a directional signal.  A signal telling you the probable direction of the next move.  How to enter to minimize risk and maximize profit is a totally separate skill/knowledge set.

After a signal you can just enter at the close of the signal bar but that is a choice for the individual trader.  Know one knows how much risk you can afford but you.  If a market does not pullback after a signal and you do not get in on the trade that is not signal failure.  That is trader failure.  If you do not have enough funds in your account to cover the reasonable stop after a signal, then you must wait for a pullback.  If the market does not pull back that is not a signal failure.  That is under-capatilization.

Lcm pivots will be 80 % accurate on the daily chart.  So, if you are trading intraday 4hr signals or less, you should take your signals off the daily support/resistance levels or the accuracy will drop to 65-70% unless you are proficient in judging trend and volume.


Again, here I am not trying to teach you the course but, to point you in the right direction...

jerryjstew@fyahoo.com
jerry@forextradingmajic.com