EARLY BIRD
EARLY BIRD HAS POSTED SOME INTERESTING COMMENTS ON THE FIRST 2 POSTS TODAY. BECAUSE OF HIM I WILL KEEP DOING IT THE WAY I'VE BEEN DOING IT.
JERRY
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
LCM TO PERFECTION
LCM TO PERFECTION
Earlier today I gave you the intraday analysis. Now let’s look at the daily chart.
Looking at the chart we can see that we had a bullish pivot form at yesterday’s daily close, on higher volume.
Today we pulled back to test the range of the swing bar and went up to where…? Yep, 3 bar. I have once again numbered the 3 bar count for you and illustrated 3 bar resistance at the red line. Drop down to your intra-day charts and you will see price reversing exactly off 3 bar to the very pip.
This may be just a temporary bounce off of 3 bar but as I teach in LCM, when price hits S/R you should at least expect a bounce.
What is our conjunction/convergence? Well, the same bar that is the 3rd bar in out 3 bar count is a range bar therefore the top of this bar also represents resistance.
Then we see that the top of this range bar is just above Fibonacci 50% from the down move (bear pivot) that began on 5-15. (BAR Z)
Then we see that this same level is at the low of the swing bar of the bear pivot that started the down move on 5-15. (BAR Z)
Summary: We have a bull pivot point at 3446 to define our entry point. We had an intra-day 4hr bull pivot point that formed at 3451 that I illustrated on today’s earlier post. We had a bull pivot on the 1hr at 3427 and 3 bar for this 1hr pivot was 3451. We closed above this 1hr 3 bar target on higher volume to confirm/flow with the daily and 4hr bull pivots. We had two bull pivots on the 30 minute to confirm our other time frame pivots. Thus, all systems were go. These presented a multitude of converging buy signals all supporting each other.
The supports for the targets have already been outlined above and there are others intraday but you get the point.
Question: On the daily 3 bar count I did not count the bar preceding the swing bar. Email me and tell me why you think that is… hint, it was not because it was an inside bar because it fell 1 pip lower than bar 3. But since it was so close I did consider it as an inside bar but the reason I did so was because I had additional, a more important reason not to count it. Do you know what it is? If you are not sure it means that you don’t understand one of the most important requirements for a valid swing bar.
SPECIAL NOTE: AT SOME POINT THIS WEEK I WILL BE CLOSING THIS BLOG TO THE PUBLIC. IT WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO REGISTERED SUBSCRIBERS OF THE LAWS OF CHARTS AND MEN.
I WILL OPEN A SEPARATE BLOG FOR THOSE WHO PREFER FREE INFORMATION THAT IS NOT AS DETAILED AND WITHOUT TRADE CALLS.
Earlier today I gave you the intraday analysis. Now let’s look at the daily chart.
Looking at the chart we can see that we had a bullish pivot form at yesterday’s daily close, on higher volume.
Today we pulled back to test the range of the swing bar and went up to where…? Yep, 3 bar. I have once again numbered the 3 bar count for you and illustrated 3 bar resistance at the red line. Drop down to your intra-day charts and you will see price reversing exactly off 3 bar to the very pip.
This may be just a temporary bounce off of 3 bar but as I teach in LCM, when price hits S/R you should at least expect a bounce.
What is our conjunction/convergence? Well, the same bar that is the 3rd bar in out 3 bar count is a range bar therefore the top of this bar also represents resistance.
Then we see that the top of this range bar is just above Fibonacci 50% from the down move (bear pivot) that began on 5-15. (BAR Z)
Then we see that this same level is at the low of the swing bar of the bear pivot that started the down move on 5-15. (BAR Z)
Summary: We have a bull pivot point at 3446 to define our entry point. We had an intra-day 4hr bull pivot point that formed at 3451 that I illustrated on today’s earlier post. We had a bull pivot on the 1hr at 3427 and 3 bar for this 1hr pivot was 3451. We closed above this 1hr 3 bar target on higher volume to confirm/flow with the daily and 4hr bull pivots. We had two bull pivots on the 30 minute to confirm our other time frame pivots. Thus, all systems were go. These presented a multitude of converging buy signals all supporting each other.
The supports for the targets have already been outlined above and there are others intraday but you get the point.
Question: On the daily 3 bar count I did not count the bar preceding the swing bar. Email me and tell me why you think that is… hint, it was not because it was an inside bar because it fell 1 pip lower than bar 3. But since it was so close I did consider it as an inside bar but the reason I did so was because I had additional, a more important reason not to count it. Do you know what it is? If you are not sure it means that you don’t understand one of the most important requirements for a valid swing bar.
SPECIAL NOTE: AT SOME POINT THIS WEEK I WILL BE CLOSING THIS BLOG TO THE PUBLIC. IT WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO REGISTERED SUBSCRIBERS OF THE LAWS OF CHARTS AND MEN.
I WILL OPEN A SEPARATE BLOG FOR THOSE WHO PREFER FREE INFORMATION THAT IS NOT AS DETAILED AND WITHOUT TRADE CALLS.
THE RESULTS OF THE REAL TIME TRADE CALLS WILL BE POSTED THERE AND GENERAL INFORMATION THAT IS NOT PROPRIATARY TO THE LAWS OF CHARTS AND MEN.
JERRY
EURO/USD TUE 5-29-07
DURING THE TIME IT TOOK ME TO PUT TOGETHER THIS ANALYSIS FOR YOU THE MARKET IS ALREADY MAKING THE MOVE SIGNALED BY THE BULLISH 4HR PIVOT.
SEE ATTACHED 4HR CHART;
Notice how all the bars between bars 1 and 4 are all inside the range of bar 1. The red lines illustrate the high low range of bar 1, the swing bar.
Bar 4 is the pivot bar on this complex bear pivot. LCM explains complex pivots.
Even though bar 4 closed on higher volume and appears to be a valid complex bear pivot, but when you compare it to the volume of the swing bar the volume is much lower. Since we already know that an invalid pivot will meet S/R at 3 bar, we would expect this complex pivot swing to stop down at 3bar support.
When you look at the 3 bar count I have illustrated on the chart we can see that is exactly what happened. Bar 4 formed a bear pivot bar and hit 3 bar resistance on the same bar. Now, I have taught you that when this happens, that pivot has fulfilled its objective and you should look for a reversal or bounce from there.
Bar 4 closed with a strong bounce back up off 3bar and bar 5 formed a bullish pivot reversal bar on higher volume confirming it as a valid pivot reversal.
So, now we have a bull pivot with bar 4 as the new swing bar and bar 5 the pivot bar.
Bar 6 pulled back and tested the pivot point, which is where an entry would be signaled on this bull pivot. We want to enter at the pivot point right?
This analysis is further supported by the range bar. Bar 4 bounced off bearish 3 bar support and this 3 bar support was also the bottom of the range bar. That two levels of support and I often tell you to look for conjunctions of S/R levels to confirm your pivot analysis.
So then, while trying to determine a target for this current bull pivot we know that if the bottom of the range bar has provided support then the market is most likely going to test resistance at the top of the range bar. The top of the range bar also happens to be at 3 bar resistance from this bull pivot. Now, if you can’t see how 3 bar is at the top of the range bar then you can’t expect me to keep repeating the importance of inside bars.
I have marked the top and bottom of the range bar with yellow lines to make it easier for you but I’m not going to make 3 bar because your job is to think and practice.
Lately I’ve been doing everything short of trading your account for you, with great accuracy I might add, yet the only time I hear from most of you is to complain about this or that.
So, since making accurate market calls is not good enough for you then there is no purpose for me to make them is there?
SEE ATTACHED 4HR CHART;
Notice how all the bars between bars 1 and 4 are all inside the range of bar 1. The red lines illustrate the high low range of bar 1, the swing bar.
Bar 4 is the pivot bar on this complex bear pivot. LCM explains complex pivots.
Even though bar 4 closed on higher volume and appears to be a valid complex bear pivot, but when you compare it to the volume of the swing bar the volume is much lower. Since we already know that an invalid pivot will meet S/R at 3 bar, we would expect this complex pivot swing to stop down at 3bar support.
When you look at the 3 bar count I have illustrated on the chart we can see that is exactly what happened. Bar 4 formed a bear pivot bar and hit 3 bar resistance on the same bar. Now, I have taught you that when this happens, that pivot has fulfilled its objective and you should look for a reversal or bounce from there.
Bar 4 closed with a strong bounce back up off 3bar and bar 5 formed a bullish pivot reversal bar on higher volume confirming it as a valid pivot reversal.
So, now we have a bull pivot with bar 4 as the new swing bar and bar 5 the pivot bar.
Bar 6 pulled back and tested the pivot point, which is where an entry would be signaled on this bull pivot. We want to enter at the pivot point right?
This analysis is further supported by the range bar. Bar 4 bounced off bearish 3 bar support and this 3 bar support was also the bottom of the range bar. That two levels of support and I often tell you to look for conjunctions of S/R levels to confirm your pivot analysis.
So then, while trying to determine a target for this current bull pivot we know that if the bottom of the range bar has provided support then the market is most likely going to test resistance at the top of the range bar. The top of the range bar also happens to be at 3 bar resistance from this bull pivot. Now, if you can’t see how 3 bar is at the top of the range bar then you can’t expect me to keep repeating the importance of inside bars.
I have marked the top and bottom of the range bar with yellow lines to make it easier for you but I’m not going to make 3 bar because your job is to think and practice.
Lately I’ve been doing everything short of trading your account for you, with great accuracy I might add, yet the only time I hear from most of you is to complain about this or that.
So, since making accurate market calls is not good enough for you then there is no purpose for me to make them is there?
JERRY
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