Thursday, July 7, 2011
EURUSD THUR. JUL 7 2011
For intraday traders especially. We need to pay attention to the U.S. employment data at 8:30 am eastern standard time. No matter what our analysis is the markets are fueled by news. News is used by the professionals to surprise the retail traders and cause market motion due to panic and confusion.
Your initial analysis can be dead on accurate but when the news comes out, market sentiment can change immediately. When The news is pro U.S. the eurusd should fall and negative U.S. eurusd should rise. But this does not always happen does it? This is the first major data release of the month and the first major data release is known to surprise retail traders.
At the moment, retail traders are about 57% long holders so the market should continue down initially off the news to shake out these holdouts hoping for a pullback to get them out at break even. Therefore the analysis I posted last night should follow the script I suggested.
But here is the real point. What does your analysis produce when you are wrong? How does your analysis manage risk when you are wrong? What percentage of your account will you lose if you are wrong? That's what it's really about. Not how much can I make? Of course you're going to make money when you are right! But, how much do the wrongs eat off the table of your rights?
Thus, I say to you again, analysis of direction is only one component of trading and I feel the easiest to learn. Aaahhh...but the devil is in the details of how to correctly enter and exit. Yes, I know. Everyone knows how to enter and exit...But do they know how to enter in such a way as to minimize risk and maximize profits.? right now I am short 1/3 of my normal full position per my post last night and looking to get out at 4182. That's 3 mini contracts out of a normal 1 standard lot. If you trade mini lots that's 3 micro lots. For you newer traders, that's called scaling in to your position in order to minimize risk.
Your method of minimizing risk and maximizing profits is not just general either. It must fit into the context of your trading system...
It will be fun to see how the news affects our analysis. I'm hoping for a pullback up to 4409 so I can enter anothe 2/3 position. Nother 6-7 mini contracts to complete 1 standard lot. 10 mini lots = 1 standard lot
Cheers, Jerry
jerryjstew@yahoo.com
jerry@forextradingmajic.com
It will be fun to see how the news affects our analysis. I'm hoping for a pullback up to 4409 so I can enter anothe 2/3 position. Nother 6-7 mini contracts to complete 1 standard lot. 10 mini lots = 1 standard lot
Cheers, Jerry
jerryjstew@yahoo.com
jerry@forextradingmajic.com
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
EURUSD JULY 7 2011
Click on pair for chart.
EURUSD
I am looking for a fall to 4175 but first a pullback up to minor support at 4409. We broke down through minor support yesterday and that is an Lcm breakin signal that I teach in my 1 on 1 course.
After a signal there is usually a pullback. I am looking to enter as follows. 1/3 of my normal full position on a break below yesterday's low. 2/3 of my normal position on a pullback to 4409.
Yesterdays move was controlled by the market makers and before they let price fall further the probability is high that they will rise ii on a pullback to get better positions for the further fall down to major support at 4182.
If you are considering a short trade today your stop needs to be above 4470
It works like this: 1. Market breaks down through minor support 2. Market pulls back to test minor support 3. Market continues down to major support.
If the move does not follow this sequence, ( does not pullback ) Major support at 4182 can be expected to bounce price back up. If this scenario should play our, look to enter long off of the supply line at 4137.
You already have the lines from yesterday's video, just add a line at 4182.
Always remember, a close beyond a support or resistance level is a signal when confirmed by volume. That is a directional signal. A signal telling you the probable direction of the next move. How to enter to minimize risk and maximize profit is a totally separate skill/knowledge set.
After a signal you can just enter at the close of the signal bar but that is a choice for the individual trader. Know one knows how much risk you can afford but you. If a market does not pullback after a signal and you do not get in on the trade that is not signal failure. That is trader failure. If you do not have enough funds in your account to cover the reasonable stop after a signal, then you must wait for a pullback. If the market does not pull back that is not a signal failure. That is under-capatilization.
Lcm pivots will be 80 % accurate on the daily chart. So, if you are trading intraday 4hr signals or less, you should take your signals off the daily support/resistance levels or the accuracy will drop to 65-70% unless you are proficient in judging trend and volume.
Again, here I am not trying to teach you the course but, to point you in the right direction...
jerryjstew@fyahoo.com
jerry@forextradingmajic.com
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
Monday, June 6, 2011
MARKET UPDATE 1 mONDAY jUNE 6 @ 5:30 AM EST
TRADE JOURNAL
Sun JUNE 5 2011
9:00 p.m. EST-- The yen is weak across the board right now. Normally I don't trade on Sunday but, I'm looking to see how aggressive the market makers are.Also, this is the first day I'm actually trading the account seriously. Till now I've just been trying to get in the required 31 trades as fast as possible without Tearing the stats down on the account. As mentioned earlier in the journal. I'm starting off with a few LCM home run trades.The signals were 4 short trades in the gbpjpy, eurjpy, chfjpy, and audjpy. The market reacted to the orders as usual with an immediate pullback against the positions. Even though I sometimes place my hard stops at a negative profit to loss ratio that is only for show like poker. I will be watching for my mental stops which are true profit to loss ratio. I often exit early before the posted stop or target is hit. This is to keep the broker program trading robots from zeroing in on a trading pattern. Let's see what happens.
Note: The trades were entered 10-15 pips late. Since its Sunday night I'm at my home office and after 20 years my family and friends still do not consider what I do as work even though they complain that I live at the computer. They still think I'm playing or something and will interrupt me for the damnedest things where they would not dare think of interrupting me when I'm doing physical labor. So, I know what most traders go through just to trade in peace. It no longer angers me because it has taught me the truth about the mental dumbing down of the human population. It can't possibly be work unless you're doing it somewhere else for someone else.
4:00 am Close gbpjpy and eurjpy a couple of pips from target. they closed a couple of pips from daily open support which is support until a close below it. Exited audjpy by accident and reentered. It's 4:00 am and I'm tired but trading is work. Also exited chfjpy. Too early it looks but the hour closed with a high volume inside bar so I stuck to the early exit rules on this one. The bar had higher volume and thus, needed to close lower than prior bar. It also did not close below the 20 avg so I needed to see a break below the 20. It did so immediately at the open of the hour and rushed down to the daily open target. No chance to reenter like audjpy which I would have loved to do.
4:24 am Closed audjpy @ daily open for another. 4 out of 5 so far today. Not going for bi pips yet though. The week is just starting and I'm looking to take what the market is showing it's willing to give at the moment. The jpy is weak across the board and I will look to jpy some more if hour closes below daily open. 15-20 pips profit may not seem like much but, when you average about 10 trades per day that's a potential 150-200 pips per day. But the main point is to try and keep your average risk to around that amount also and you have staying power Right now I'm trading off the 1hr and that is the average range of a 1 hr bar. I trade all time frames whenever I see an opportunity. The longer the time frame the larger the target and stop/risk.
4:40 am - Right now I'm glad I stuck to the LCM principles and got out at first support because all of the pars I was in are bouncing back up hard off the daily open/s.This is what I mean when I say, "Take what the market is willing to give. The currency market in general is bouncing back up off the daily open/s."
5:00 The chfjpy - I made a mistake by not jumping back in but hindsight is 20-20. My mistake was in misjudging the opening range by not considering that the closing range bar from Friday is the opening range bar because the opening range bar for today was an inside bar that closed within it. Forgetting to look at inside bars is one of my most common mistakes. But this pair has exploded through both and I missed the ride. I am always amazed how often I can have say, 5-8 trades open and it's the one I'm not in that blows up and I miss the pair with the biggest move. I don't know if that is a result of my conservatism or that's just how tight the operator beast computers have the program trading algorithms down. For most of the pairs the opening range held and that means it's time for a reversal to test last hour's move.
5:05 am It's time for me to take a break till the u.s. session. Tired minds make mistakes. Currently up 28.7 pips on 5 1hr chart trades.for the day. bUT THE MAIN THING IS THAT
i'M SATISFIED WITH MY RISK MANAGEMENT THUS FAR. aLL OF MY TRADES WERE SHORTS AND MY OBJDECTIVE WHEN GOING SHORT IS TO GO SHORT AS CLOSE TO THE HIGH OF THE DAY AS POSSIBLE.
Sun JUNE 5 2011
9:00 p.m. EST-- The yen is weak across the board right now. Normally I don't trade on Sunday but, I'm looking to see how aggressive the market makers are.Also, this is the first day I'm actually trading the account seriously. Till now I've just been trying to get in the required 31 trades as fast as possible without Tearing the stats down on the account. As mentioned earlier in the journal. I'm starting off with a few LCM home run trades.The signals were 4 short trades in the gbpjpy, eurjpy, chfjpy, and audjpy. The market reacted to the orders as usual with an immediate pullback against the positions. Even though I sometimes place my hard stops at a negative profit to loss ratio that is only for show like poker. I will be watching for my mental stops which are true profit to loss ratio. I often exit early before the posted stop or target is hit. This is to keep the broker program trading robots from zeroing in on a trading pattern. Let's see what happens.
Note: The trades were entered 10-15 pips late. Since its Sunday night I'm at my home office and after 20 years my family and friends still do not consider what I do as work even though they complain that I live at the computer. They still think I'm playing or something and will interrupt me for the damnedest things where they would not dare think of interrupting me when I'm doing physical labor. So, I know what most traders go through just to trade in peace. It no longer angers me because it has taught me the truth about the mental dumbing down of the human population. It can't possibly be work unless you're doing it somewhere else for someone else.
4:00 am Close gbpjpy and eurjpy a couple of pips from target. they closed a couple of pips from daily open support which is support until a close below it. Exited audjpy by accident and reentered. It's 4:00 am and I'm tired but trading is work. Also exited chfjpy. Too early it looks but the hour closed with a high volume inside bar so I stuck to the early exit rules on this one. The bar had higher volume and thus, needed to close lower than prior bar. It also did not close below the 20 avg so I needed to see a break below the 20. It did so immediately at the open of the hour and rushed down to the daily open target. No chance to reenter like audjpy which I would have loved to do.
4:24 am Closed audjpy @ daily open for another. 4 out of 5 so far today. Not going for bi pips yet though. The week is just starting and I'm looking to take what the market is showing it's willing to give at the moment. The jpy is weak across the board and I will look to jpy some more if hour closes below daily open. 15-20 pips profit may not seem like much but, when you average about 10 trades per day that's a potential 150-200 pips per day. But the main point is to try and keep your average risk to around that amount also and you have staying power Right now I'm trading off the 1hr and that is the average range of a 1 hr bar. I trade all time frames whenever I see an opportunity. The longer the time frame the larger the target and stop/risk.
4:40 am - Right now I'm glad I stuck to the LCM principles and got out at first support because all of the pars I was in are bouncing back up hard off the daily open/s.This is what I mean when I say, "Take what the market is willing to give. The currency market in general is bouncing back up off the daily open/s."
5:00 The chfjpy - I made a mistake by not jumping back in but hindsight is 20-20. My mistake was in misjudging the opening range by not considering that the closing range bar from Friday is the opening range bar because the opening range bar for today was an inside bar that closed within it. Forgetting to look at inside bars is one of my most common mistakes. But this pair has exploded through both and I missed the ride. I am always amazed how often I can have say, 5-8 trades open and it's the one I'm not in that blows up and I miss the pair with the biggest move. I don't know if that is a result of my conservatism or that's just how tight the operator beast computers have the program trading algorithms down. For most of the pairs the opening range held and that means it's time for a reversal to test last hour's move.
5:05 am It's time for me to take a break till the u.s. session. Tired minds make mistakes. Currently up 28.7 pips on 5 1hr chart trades.for the day. bUT THE MAIN THING IS THAT
i'M SATISFIED WITH MY RISK MANAGEMENT THUS FAR. aLL OF MY TRADES WERE SHORTS AND MY OBJDECTIVE WHEN GOING SHORT IS TO GO SHORT AS CLOSE TO THE HIGH OF THE DAY AS POSSIBLE.
NOTE: WHILE i CANNOT PREDICT THE HIGH OR LOW OF THE DAY IN ADVANCE, I CAN USUALLY SPOT IT WHEN IT HAS OCCURED A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF THE TIME.. THE HIGH OR LOW FOR THE DAY MAY CHANGE FROM HERE BUT i MEAN DURING THE TIME i'M ACTUALLY TRADING.
For those who ask me what is the differenc between my books and my 1 on 1 course, if you read my logs it should be obvious. There are levels of details that cannot
be in a book or a book will be thousands of pages. My books teach you a couple of techniques and concepts. The basics. It's like playing sports. You can go to the coach and
get the playbook and never talk to the coach again. That means you learn the plays. But learning the plays is the basics that prepare you to learn...
HOW...TO...PLAY...THE...GAME... Or as Morpheous told Neo in the Matrix movie...It's a big difference between knowing the path, and walking the path. After studying
my books you will know the path. After taking my course you will know how to walk the path...
Thursday, June 2, 2011
MARKET UPDATE 2 11:00 A.M.
Well, since I woke up at 4 am est this morning I have not been impressed by price action at all. As far as the 1 hr chart, we got a 30 minute quick pop off the gbp news and it's been slow motion since.
Banks are the market makers than move currencies. Most of them are off today ( eurozone ). That's the trade off with market makers. They are needed because without them there is no liquidity in the market and we get markets caught in a tight range that's un-tradeable because of no sustained direction. The flip side is that they set up retail traders who don't understand the game.
The hardest thing for any trader is not to trade for a whole day. But I think most traders know when to trade but, very few know when not to.
The u.s. data has not put any real energy into the markets. Markets are ticking like a slow clock. Squeezing blood. Why look to force a trade. I could but I just don't see it on a risk reward basis.
Gives me a chance to get some work done for students though.
Cheers, Jerry
jerry@forextradingmajic.com
jerryjstew@yahoo.com
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