Today is a dangerous day for retail traders. The pairs are full of tweeners on the daily charts. What are tweeners? When a market is between support/resistance levels with no clear commitment where it wants to go. and the most recent equilibrium point ( pivot/balance point ) being relatively far away in time.
It's like, when you see the cops making some drunk driver walk the sobriety line. He is weaving and wobbling but he is still walking that straight line. We are laughing at him and saying, "How is he doing that?" We can't figure out at any moment if he is going to straighten up or tumble down,,,A man walking a tight rope. It's clear that he's drunk but, what's holding him on that line. It's funny because we just don't know what step he will take next although it should be obvious, since he's drunk. The point is, WE JUST DON'T KNOW...that's why it's so funny...
Today is one of those market days. Yes, we can predict, we can guess, but what will the predictions be based on? It's better to react than to predict. It's like professional baseball. The reporter asks the hitter, how did you get the winning hit, and the ballplayer says, "well, he threw me a changeup in the situation the last time and got me out so, I figured he would come back with the same pitch this time, and he did." In other words, I predicted what he would do and GUESSED RIGHT...
But when I hear that question posed to the greatest hitters I've seen they usually have a different answer. They say something simple like, "Hey man, my strategy is, SEE BALL...HIT BALL! I saw it well so I hit it well. In other words, he did not predict, HE REACTED! One of those strategies will keep you around long enough to be in the hall of fame. I'll let you decide which one.
The 4hr and 1hr pivot reversals have done just what they were supposed to do overnight. Performing like champions as usual. However, when we look at the daily chart of the audusd, nzdusd, and usdcad (the commodity pairs ) we can see the potential for all of the pairs.
Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not confused. The market can either do this or do that. The thing is, I don't predict if it's gonna do this or do that. I let the market tell me. And like the drunken man, right now the market is telling me it's going to do this AND it's going to do that. It has not chosen. No commitment. Yeah, but what about the big moves overnight? Yawn... typical fibonacci retracements and trend continuation moves. Oops, I forgot. Those are principles, you only want techniques. So, I'm gonna skip all that and cut right to the chase.
I'm looking to SEE BALL, BEFORE I HIT BALL...
The gaps and subsequent moves off of them has the man on the charts drunk. He's off balance and stumbling because of those gaps. The gaps are caused by geopolitical events that have not yet run their course. Case in point, the U.S. interest rate decision at 2:15 est today. If you didn't know that picture a visual of me having you turned over my knee and spanking the hell out of you....Lol!!!
Now, what if, the operators are driving the herd hard against the dollar all night and half the day. Everybody and their momma is piling in against the dollar. Stampeding right into the slaughter house. Now, nice and fat at 2:15 the butcher walks in in the form of positive dollar interest rate news. All the beef stampedes to the exit at the same time. And...the butchers are waiting. On the way out all the cattle half to pay for their exit with a pound of ass...
Now, don't get me wrong. I'm not saying this is going to happen. I'm only saying this scenario needs to be considered a possibility based on my 20 years if seeing it happen many, many times. So, our trading mentality needs to be adjusted accordingly. I prefer to wait now but, if I see a quick in and out opportunity I may try it with the knowledge that I most probably will get my ass burned but hey, I don't play the lottery and sometimes this is the way I play lottery.
In all seriousness, there will be two types of traders today. The quick and the dead. And 99% of traders ain't nearly quick so, that leaves only one option.
At 8:30 we have some U.S. non farm news data being released. The calender says medium impact but I wonder. The markets are looking for anything to hold on too. when you are wobbly you are clutching and grabbing for anything within reach. CAUTION IS THE WORD FOR TODAY...
Many of my true backers are telling me that they have developed a sweet tooth for my videos so, I will try to come back with a little candy for you a little later.
For now look out for major Cad news in 10 minutes. New home sales. My be something to get the market hopping but with that interest rate decision hanging over the market, hedge all bets.
Cheers, Jerry
