U.S. TRADE DATA

Well I guess I will sit this one out. I use the euro/usd and the gbp/usd as a barometer. The market seems to have it's poker face on.

There are a couple of subtle hints though that makes me lean towards a dollar bearish release.

the 4hr has formed an internal bear pivot on the gbp. Since this bear pivot is inside the range bar from yesterday's rise this pivot is questionable as the top of that range bar is the true swing bar.

Secondly, the last 4hr bar closed down on higher volume but did not close below the low of the prior bar. This is a volume divergence on the 4hr. This is an indication that selling volume has dried up before the release and supports yesterdays bullish volume divergence on the daily chart where we had an up close on lower volume to indicate selling volume had dried up on the daily.

The same profile is in effect with the Euro. So, I could be wrong but I smell a bear trap setup before the news release. But with so much data coming out today and the convergence of signals not being conclusive, I will sit this one out because I only trade based on high probability.

Jerry
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