AUD/USD ANALYSIS

This pair is sitting at the upper trendline near the high of April 19. If we get a close above the upper trendline Audie shorts are in for some serious pain.All major indicators including moving averages are signaling up. We may get a short term bounce down off this upper trend line but all signals are pointing up right now.

The market has closed back above 23% fib retrace after attempting but failing to pullback to 38% from the upswing that began March 5 and ending April 18.So now there is fib support at 23%, and also double bottom below 23% the current up move is off a double bottom, the upper bollinger band is expanding.The market has closed above 61% fib retrace from the May 15 high and will soon test 100%. When you get a pullback that closes above 61% retrace it is a good signal for trend termination and even more certain when there is a 100% retrace.

The market has completed an A-B-C Elliott wave corrective swing from the March 5th up move and volume is maintaining it's average flow.Short sellers can hope it pulls back to the 10 period moving avg around 8225 that is still below the 20 period moving avg but is pointing up in an attempt to cross back up through. It current posture is providing support.

To summarize; there are many more reasons for this market to go up than down. The reaction at the upper trend line will decide the battle between shorts and longs. A close above the trend line will have many shorts buying back to close their position and thus, this additional short covering will propel price upwards from there.At the moment, there are a lot more reasons to buy this pair than to sell it.

JERRY

EMAIL ME