THE PLAY BOOK
Now that most of you have a better idea about 3 bar equilibrium, yes I know, not all of you yet but I'm not done with you on that, but now to build upon that it is time to define the concept of an invalid pivot.
You know what an invalid pivot is but what does that mean as far as your trading? I mean if it is invalid, why even mention it or concern our selves with it. Well now that you know about 3 bar you are prepared to understand me when I say this.
"An invalid pivot can be expected to bounce off 3 bar. That is to say, you can expect an invalid pivot to reach the level of 3bar, but you should not expect price to close above 3bar, to wit, that's what's going on with the Euro/dollar for the last week or so. So, that's why trying to figure it out is probably driving some traders crazy trying to find a good trading signal within this consolidation range during this period.
Some of you who are familiar with football know about a play called a double reverse. It is a play designed by the offense to suck in an over aggressive defense by making them over commit in one direction, then the opposite direction only to realize in the end, when it is too late that they have over committed in both directions.
The play is designed to create confusion. Imagine yourself on defense. You chase the ball carrier to the left and just when you're about to tackle him he hands off to another player heading to the right.
Then, just when you lower the boom on him and crush him, thinking like Mr. T, "I pity the fool who tries to trick me," you look up from the ground and see that they guy you tackled didn't even have the ball!
Nope...he had given the ball to another player going back to the left where you just came from. As you rise from the ground and watch your whole team of defensive mates standing beside you, all realizing simultaneously that you've all been had as you look way down field, helplessly watching the new ball carrier run a long ways away from you.
Yes...you're been tricked, hoodwinked, bamboozled! Well, that's the current play in progress in the Euro/dollar. And to make matters worse there's even a play called a triple reverse.
In sports these are called deception plays. The Euro/Dollar is going through the play called the double "PIVOT" reverse.
First to the left with an invalid bull pivot, then handed off to an invalid bear pivot 2 days later, and the close of today's trading will tell us if ole E/D is about to hand the ball off again and go back left with another bull pivot.
But, a disciplined defensive player can smell out deception plays. Can smell out a double reverse as he sees the play developing. See, he always listening to his coach. Yeah, the defense also has a play book. And it does have guidelines to allow that player stop a double reverse without even recognizing that it's a double reverse. The counter for deception is called "STAY AT HOME." Meaning stick with the principles of the defensive scheme. The defensive scheme requires that, when the ball is reversed away from him, do not chase across the field. No, stay on the left side because if you chase you leave a big hole in your defense.
So, that's all he has to remember. DO...NOT...CHASE. PERIOD! Well what if it's not really a double reverse and you stay at home? If it's not a double reverse the new ball carrier is not going to be running across the field. he will be heading down field. He has committed to a direction. He is making progress on you. But as long as the ball carrier is heading across the field he is not a threat. He is gaining no ground on you.
That's your first rule of defense. Don't give ground. Not to make a spectacular tackle so you can dance over your downed opponent. This is what the double reverse is designed for...to take advantage of your overzealous emotions.
So, if your looking for a trading opportunity in the E/D right now, STAY...AT...HOME. Let it commit. It is running across the field and is not a threat to get away from you right now. It is bouncing between 2 false pivots, and bouncing off a long term monthly resistance level.
Let it make a break down field, show you it's hand. If you're going to be a serious trader, like a serious athlete, you must learn the play book.
You cannot learn the play book while playing in the game. To learn the play book you must study the play book, and there is a huge difference between just reading the play book and studying the play book.
I've got news for you. A coach can tell if you've been studying the play book, not by the number of questions you ask but, by the nature of the questions you ask. And if you don't know the play book, why would you get mad at the coach if he doesn't put you in the game. The coach is responsible for many players and if he puts you in the game he is jeopardizing the work put in by all the players who have studied the play book. If you want the coach to take you seriously them show him you're serious by STUDYING THE PLAYBOOK, not just READING THE PLAY BOOK.
So, that's why I've been a little sparse on market commentary lately because I've had too many players trying to learn the play book while they're in the game. Then, when they get hoodwinked, they want coach to pull out the play book and teach them the same play he's been teaching them in practice while the game is on. But practice is boring. Practice is hard work with no immediate results. I've heard quite a few famous athletes say this, "They pay me to practice. Heck, the games are fun, I'd play the game for free. I've been playing for free all my life just for the love of the game.
When the game is on the coach is busy with game management. The player is responsible only for himself. When the player is resting, the coach is up all night game planning. And then what if the coach is also a player. You know what a player coach is already. So add all this up.
Be coachable and you will be unbeatable...
So, understand that I'm not trying to avoid questions at this time. I am simply trying to teach you the playbook. You need to learn the playbook or the answer to a question will only raise other questions. 95% of the answers are in the play book.
Jerry
You know what an invalid pivot is but what does that mean as far as your trading? I mean if it is invalid, why even mention it or concern our selves with it. Well now that you know about 3 bar you are prepared to understand me when I say this.
"An invalid pivot can be expected to bounce off 3 bar. That is to say, you can expect an invalid pivot to reach the level of 3bar, but you should not expect price to close above 3bar, to wit, that's what's going on with the Euro/dollar for the last week or so. So, that's why trying to figure it out is probably driving some traders crazy trying to find a good trading signal within this consolidation range during this period.
Some of you who are familiar with football know about a play called a double reverse. It is a play designed by the offense to suck in an over aggressive defense by making them over commit in one direction, then the opposite direction only to realize in the end, when it is too late that they have over committed in both directions.
The play is designed to create confusion. Imagine yourself on defense. You chase the ball carrier to the left and just when you're about to tackle him he hands off to another player heading to the right.
Then, just when you lower the boom on him and crush him, thinking like Mr. T, "I pity the fool who tries to trick me," you look up from the ground and see that they guy you tackled didn't even have the ball!
Nope...he had given the ball to another player going back to the left where you just came from. As you rise from the ground and watch your whole team of defensive mates standing beside you, all realizing simultaneously that you've all been had as you look way down field, helplessly watching the new ball carrier run a long ways away from you.
Yes...you're been tricked, hoodwinked, bamboozled! Well, that's the current play in progress in the Euro/dollar. And to make matters worse there's even a play called a triple reverse.
In sports these are called deception plays. The Euro/Dollar is going through the play called the double "PIVOT" reverse.
First to the left with an invalid bull pivot, then handed off to an invalid bear pivot 2 days later, and the close of today's trading will tell us if ole E/D is about to hand the ball off again and go back left with another bull pivot.
But, a disciplined defensive player can smell out deception plays. Can smell out a double reverse as he sees the play developing. See, he always listening to his coach. Yeah, the defense also has a play book. And it does have guidelines to allow that player stop a double reverse without even recognizing that it's a double reverse. The counter for deception is called "STAY AT HOME." Meaning stick with the principles of the defensive scheme. The defensive scheme requires that, when the ball is reversed away from him, do not chase across the field. No, stay on the left side because if you chase you leave a big hole in your defense.
So, that's all he has to remember. DO...NOT...CHASE. PERIOD! Well what if it's not really a double reverse and you stay at home? If it's not a double reverse the new ball carrier is not going to be running across the field. he will be heading down field. He has committed to a direction. He is making progress on you. But as long as the ball carrier is heading across the field he is not a threat. He is gaining no ground on you.
That's your first rule of defense. Don't give ground. Not to make a spectacular tackle so you can dance over your downed opponent. This is what the double reverse is designed for...to take advantage of your overzealous emotions.
So, if your looking for a trading opportunity in the E/D right now, STAY...AT...HOME. Let it commit. It is running across the field and is not a threat to get away from you right now. It is bouncing between 2 false pivots, and bouncing off a long term monthly resistance level.
Let it make a break down field, show you it's hand. If you're going to be a serious trader, like a serious athlete, you must learn the play book.
You cannot learn the play book while playing in the game. To learn the play book you must study the play book, and there is a huge difference between just reading the play book and studying the play book.
I've got news for you. A coach can tell if you've been studying the play book, not by the number of questions you ask but, by the nature of the questions you ask. And if you don't know the play book, why would you get mad at the coach if he doesn't put you in the game. The coach is responsible for many players and if he puts you in the game he is jeopardizing the work put in by all the players who have studied the play book. If you want the coach to take you seriously them show him you're serious by STUDYING THE PLAYBOOK, not just READING THE PLAY BOOK.
So, that's why I've been a little sparse on market commentary lately because I've had too many players trying to learn the play book while they're in the game. Then, when they get hoodwinked, they want coach to pull out the play book and teach them the same play he's been teaching them in practice while the game is on. But practice is boring. Practice is hard work with no immediate results. I've heard quite a few famous athletes say this, "They pay me to practice. Heck, the games are fun, I'd play the game for free. I've been playing for free all my life just for the love of the game.
When the game is on the coach is busy with game management. The player is responsible only for himself. When the player is resting, the coach is up all night game planning. And then what if the coach is also a player. You know what a player coach is already. So add all this up.
Be coachable and you will be unbeatable...
So, understand that I'm not trying to avoid questions at this time. I am simply trying to teach you the playbook. You need to learn the playbook or the answer to a question will only raise other questions. 95% of the answers are in the play book.
Jerry
No comments:
Post a Comment