Tuesday, May 15, 2007

GBP/USD FOCUS


I'VE GOT A BONE TO PICK WITH THE POUND SO I'M GOING TO STICK WITH THAT PAIR AS MY FOCUS.

THE DAILY FORMED AN OUTSIDE BAR PIVOT TODAY. IT ALSO TESTED AND CLOSED ABOVE THE CLOSE OF THE BEAR RANGE BAR THAT PRINTED 5 DAYS AGO.

THE FIRST LEVEL OF SUPPORT IS THE PIVOT POINT AT 9820.

THAT MEANS THE CLOSE OF THAT RANGE BAR IS SUPPORT. TO ADD TO THAT SUPPORT THE OPEN OF THE SWING BAR. ADD TO THAT IS THAT THE SWING BAR REPRESENTS A PREGNANT MOTHER FORMATION.

SO NOW WE HAVE SIGNIFICANT BOTTOM SUPPORT AT 9787.
THESE ARE OUR KEY NUMBERS BASED ON THE PRICE PATTERN.
9820-DAILY PIVOT POINT
9787-BOTTOM SUPPORT
9806-4HR PIVOT POINT

MARKETS MOVE LIKE TIDES EBB AND FLOW. SO WE ARE LOOKING FOR A PULLBACK FROM TODAY'S SURGE. AND WHEN WE TALK ABOUT PULLBACKS WE'RE TALKING ABOUT FIBONACCI LEVELS.

TODAY'S UPSURGE BOUNCED OFF THE 50% FIB LEVEL FROM THE MOST RECENT DOWNSWING FROM THE HIGH AT 9995. WE ARE SITTING AT THE 38% RETRACEMENT FROM THAT HIGH AT 9844.

THE NEXT LEVEL BELOW THIS IS 23.6% WHICH SITS AT 9906. SO, THESE ARE OUR KEY FIB NUMBERS
9844-DAILY 38%
9806- DAILY 23.6%
9820- 4HR 38%
9806 - 4HR 5O%
9794 -4HR 61.8%

WHEN WE PUT IT ALL TOGETHER WE LOOK FOR THE NUMBERS THAT OCCUR WITH FREQUENCY.
9806 OCCURS 3 TIMES
9820 OCCURS 2 TIMES

THESE 2 NUMBERS ARE OUR KEY NUMBERS. WE WANT TO LOOK FOR A PULLBACK TO ONE OF THESE NUMBERS AND AN INTRADAY PIVOT ABOVE THE NUMBER.

THE LOWER YOU CAN GET IN ON A PIVOT REVERSAL THE SAFER THE TRADE BECAUSE THE CLOSER YOU ARE TO SUPPORT MEAN A LOWER STOP.

AND REMEMBER WHAT I SAID EARLIER TODAY ABOUT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A PULLBACK AND A REVERSAL.

ON THE UPSIDE THE FIRST TARGETS WILL BE IN THE FOLLOWING ORDER.
9842-38%
9870-50%
9900-62%
9931- OPEN OF THE DAILY RANGE BAR.

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